We’ve often warned against putting too much stock in polls. But that said, right now the polls are pointing in a direction that should have liberals very worried.

John Burn-Murdoch, the chief data reporter for the Financial Times, has looked at dozens of America’s gold-standard national election surveys and concludes:

Democrats’ advantage with minorities is the lowest since 1960, as conservative minorities increasingly vote their policy preferences. In 2012, three quarters of blacks who identified as conservatives voted for Democrats, vs. less than half in 2022.

A less racially divided America is an America where people vote more based on their beliefs than their identity. This is bad news for Democrats.

Burn-Murdoch found that Black Americans who lived through the civil rights era still supported Democrats at very high levels – even though Democrats were the party that traditionally opposed integration. But younger generations of black voters are wavering. Many of America’s non-white voters have long held much more conservative views than white Democratic voters. Minorities are much less likely to rate climate change and LGBTQ issues as a high priority, even as elitist liberals keep pushing a radical agenda on both issues.

Another factor is that the image of the GOP as the party of wealthy country club elites is dimming, opening the door to working- and middle-class voters of all ethnicities.