In the wake of his amazing courage under fire (literally), Trump’s betting odds of winning the White House have soared this week to as high as two to one. The stock market also went on a tear. Despite Thursday’s sell-off, equities have risen sharply this week.

Some analysts are calling this the Trump rally.

There is evidence that the market has correlated positively with Trump’s odds of winning. That makes sense because Trump’s policies are clearly better for equities. It seems like investors see Trump as better for a bull market than just about any other.  But be careful. If conservatives claim credit for a rising stock market, then they have to take the blame if the market suddenly crashes.

If this really IS a Trump rally, it also creates a paradox. A booming stock market helps the incumbent party – the Democrats. So all things equal, if the market soars over the next three months and Americans feel upbeat from a 401k wealth effect, then they are less likely to vote for change. Which could be the opposite of what investors were hoping for.