Could Republicans Break the Usual Midterm Curse and Hold the House?

Yes, but if they are to have ANY of holding majorities next year, they need to deliver quickly on the Trump tax cut.

The midterms are just 20 months away.

The good news is that President Trump is having a good run in the opinion polls. CNN digital data reporter Harry Enten reports that Trump has had a positive approval rating for 21 straight days so far in his second term. During his first term, he had a net approval rating in only 11 days.

A new analysis by the election handicapper Cook Political Report finds Republicans favored to keep Senate control with the only two toss-up seats they found – Georgia and Michigan – currently held by Democrats.

As for the House, going into 2026, Republicans will likely have only a five-seat majority (220 to 215) when all vacancies are filled. But the Cook analysis lists only 18 seats in its Toss Up category. If the two parties split those evenly, the GOP would end up with a majority of 222 seats – two more than what they now have.

But if conservatives fail on the tax cut, and American families are facing a $3,000 tax increase next year, they deserve to be routed.

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