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California’s Latest 2050 Population Estimate Is Down by Almost 20 Million

According to new California State Department of Finance (DOF) projections, California will have slightly fewer residents in 2060 (39,508,000) than in 2020 (39,520,000). This is down 4.7 million from the previous (2021) projection. Stunningly, the 2023 projections for 2050 are 19.5 million below the 2007 DOF projection of 59.5 million. This drop is about equal to New York State’s present population of 19.6 million.

Why has California scaled back so much on its population expectations?

The top factor is net domestic out-migration. According to a US Census Bureau report, 3.5 million more people moved out of California than from other states and DC since 2000. This is nearly as many people as live in the city of Los Angeles, the largest city in California and the second largest in the United States.

Much of the domestic migration is due to California’s severely unaffordable housing. The cost of living, the high-income taxes in the country, and a thoroughly left-wing culture of intolerance are people’s repellants.

Then, as we showed last week in the Hotline, there are fewer babies being born in the Golden State. California’s Total Fertility Rate (the number of live births per woman of childbearing age), ranks 43rd among the states.

One lesson for this is to beware long term forecasts. They are almost ALWAYS wrong – especially when it comes to population growth.

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