Regular HOTLINE readers know we think monetary policy should be linked to keeping commodity prices stable. The commodity index (CRB) is always the lead indicator of rising consumer prices and it shows a more than 20% rise in commodity prices in one month. We’re going to see a big spike in the CPI for March.

That’s likely temporary due to the Iran conflict, and we predict oil prices can and will come down as rapidly as they rose.

But in the meantime, as long as the prices of everything from corn to copper to coal stay elevated like this, we have a hard time seeing how the Fed could be lowering rates now.

Why not a temporary cut in the payroll tax or a 10% reduction in tax rates, which will drive more workers into the labor force, increase production and drive prices down?