With both Kamala Harris and Donald Trump hovering around 270 electoral votes, it’s quite possible that the November presidential election could be decided by three electoral votes or less.

As regular readers of these pages will recall, we were among the first to cry foul in reporting that the 2020 Census robbed red states of between two and four electoral seats thanks to overcounts in blue states like New York and Rhode Island. The 2020 Census counts were during the midst of Covid lockdowns and among other things, didn’t properly account for blue city residents who moved out of New York and other large cities.

The Census Bureau itself later admitted in what they called a “Post-Enumeration Survey Estimation Report” that there were unusually large counting errors:

Do you notice that almost all the overcounts were in blue states and almost all the undercounts were in red states?

According to a Heritage Foundation analysis, the result of these errors was to short red states three seats (two in Florida and one in Texas) and give them undeservedly to Minnesota, Rhode Island, and Colorado instead.

In a close election, a swing of three House districts and three electoral college votes could determine control of the House and/or the White House.