As regular HOTLINE readers know, Unleash Prosperity calculates advance estimates of monthly income gains and losses based on Census Bureau data. Our estimates are within one percent of the official numbers that are released about a year later.

We just ran the numbers through July 2026. We will give you the good news first. After a four-year near zero increase in real median household incomes under Biden, through the first 14 months of the Trump presidency, that number was up by a robust $2,800 – that’s after accounting for inflation.

Now for the bad news. Since the Iran conflict and the spike in oil prices, median household incomes have fallen by about $800 on an annualized basis over the last four months. So now real median income under Trump is up roughly $2,000.

That’s still a healthy gain – and affordability is still up under Trump, but voters are asking what have you done for me lately.

When – not if – the oil price starts to spill below $70 a barrel, real incomes will start rising rapidly again.