We are not too optimistic, but the House vote on Friday is going to be close. Thankfully, every Republican is expected to vote no.

Jared Golden, a Maine Democrat who represents a district that Donald Trump carried by six points, is probably a no. He has just started running a brutal ad back home where he states:

“I was the only Democrat to vote against trillions of dollars of President Biden’s agenda because I knew it would make inflation worse,” he says. “In Congress, I’m an independent voice for you, taking on my own party to stand up for Maine families.” Look for that “inflation worse” quote to appear in countless GOP attack ads this fall.

Rep. Henry Cuellar, a moderate Democrat from Deep in the Heart of Texas defeated a progressive challenger in his primary. He could defect. He represents a district full of oil and gas workers and has not yet signed on to the bill.

Kurt Schrader, a moderate Democrat from Oregon, owes his party no favors. His liberal state legislature stuffed his district with more liberal voters during redistricting and he lost his May primary to a progressive. He has voted against Biden’s spending plans before and now says: “I think the Democratic Party has moved quite a bit to the left, moving out from underneath me. The socialist wing of the party is taking over.”

Other House Democrats could be vulnerable to voter pressure: Abigail Spanberger of Virginia, Tom O’Halleran of Arizona, and Jim Costa of California come to mind. Carolyn Bourdeaux, a moderate from Georgia, lost her primary this year to Lucy McBath, a liberal colleague who was redistricted into her seat. She would have nothing to lose by voting against the Manchin-Schumer monstrosity – except a lowly desk job in the Biden admin.