Voters will decide the fate of dozens of ballot initiatives next week. We’ve highlighted six that could have a big impact on the economy with some fearless forecasts on their chances of passing:
- Proposition 132 Supermajority vote to raise taxes
- Requires a 60% majority popular vote for any ballot initiative that increases taxes to be approved. This bolsters protections for Arizona taxpayers against tax hikes. Close call, but more likely to pass.
- Proposition 30 income tax surcharge
- This may be the most important of all the initiatives. It would impose a $5 billion income tax surcharge of 1.75% on earnings over $2 million with the money used to fund electric vehicles. This would push the top income tax rate in CA to 15% – higher than New York’s 13% top rate. The measure is such a killer for small businesses that even Democratic Governor Gavin Newsom opposes it. This measure is almost certain to lose.
- Amendment 1 Enshrine forces unionism in the state constitution
- This would Create a “fundamental right” to collective bargaining in the state constitution and permanently ban Right-to-Work laws (which have been enacted in 27 states). This dangerous amendment would raise costs for Illinois taxpayers and likely chase businesses out of the state. We believe this is likely to fail.
- Question 1 income tax surcharge on the rich
- The Crude Oil Windfall Profit Tax Act of 1980 was enacted under the Carter administration and generated some $80B in gross revenues over the next eight years before being repealed by President Reagan. U.S. crude production declined as much as 8% over the period
- Initiative 433 $15 minimum wage
- Would Increase the state minimum wage to $15 per hour by 2026, and index it for inflation in the future. Not likely to pass in conservative Nebraska.
- Constitutional Amendment 1 enshrines right to work in the state constitution
- This measure would: Add the right to work – barring employers from requiring union membership as a condition of employment – to the state constitution. It is the opposite of the Illinois measure. It will likely pass.
For more information on these and other ballot initiatives that will be voted on next Tuesday go to Americans for Tax Reform or Ballotpedia websites.