A recent widely circulated article in The New York Times (“Women in their 20s may not be having babies, but by 45 Most probably will”) speculated that America’s record low birth rate “could be only temporary as today’s young women postpone pregnancy.”

The Times calls this a pregnancy “postponement transition,” which could see the birthrate recuperate as women substitute later births (such as at ages 35 and over) for earlier (such as around age 25).

The heart of the piece was the Times chart below showing hugely increasing birth rates as women’s ages increase (below). Younger women are having fewer children and older women are giving birth to more children.

What we have here is a classic case of how to lie with statistics. As our ace demographer Wendell Cox points out, yes, births are increasing among women 30 years and older (an increase of approximately 313,000 from 2007 to 2024). But this was dwarfed by the loss of nearly one million (approximately 996,000) in births among women 35 years old or more.  Combining all ages, there was a net LOSS of approximately 683,000 births between 2007 and 2024.

Here is the relevant chart on what is happening with birth rates in the U.S. by age of mother:

The birth rate in America has collapsed – as in almost all developed nations – and this is a clear and present danger to the future of the American family and our future prosperity.