The Myth that Extending the Trump Tax Cuts Will Blow Up the Debt

Stop us if you’ve heard us say this before: In the six years since the Trump tax cuts were enacted, tax revenues have come in HIGHER than was expected without the TCJA. That is because of the positive economic effects of the lower tax rates. The Trump tax cuts worked—hard stop.

So where is this fabled multi-trillion-dollar tax loss?

We also hear that the Left’s plan to cancel the Trump tax cuts will lower the deficit.

The Washington Post claims this “would generate around $5 trillion in additional tax revenue from the wealthy and corporations over the next decade.”

Really?  A $5 trillion tax hike will have NO negative effect on the American economy?

Raising our business tax rates to the highest in the world, doubling the tax on capital gains, and a first-ever tax on the appreciation in the value of stocks and property won’t hurt jobs and growth?

This is “static analysis” on steroids. Under this simple-minded thinking, if we just raise taxes to 99%, we can retire the national debt and afford Medicare for all, reparations, the green new deal, and free college.

There is another problem with this theory – if higher rates do squeeze out more revenue, Congress will spend every penny and then some.  As Milton Friedman famously noted: “government will spend whatever the tax system raises, plus as much more as they can get away with.”

To avert a fiscal crisis we need spending restraint and strong economic growth – and tax hikes are counterproductive to both of those.

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