The betting markets were more accurate than the polls and gave useful information to financial markets in real-time about the unbiased state of the race.

Not only did the betting markets aggregate all of the publicly available information, but market participants also had additional information – which is why they thought the election was worth betting on.

Polymarket consistently gave Trump better odds than pollster models not because they were being manipulated, but because the biggest bettor on there correctly identified that public polls underrepresented Trump voters and confirmed it via his own private surveys using the “how are your neighbors voting” question.

He is a financial trader who lives in France and had no rooting interest in the election. But thanks to him, the markets aggregated better information than the public models and produced a more predictive outcome.

He made $50 million, too.

But nobody’s perfect – he had Trump losing Michigan.