We’ve said many times that the polling data is less meaningful than the betting markets, which are the best measure of where the race stands.

On the one hand, right now it is Trump over Biden, about 53% to 37%!

BUT, this means it’s Trump at 53% and the rest of the Democrat field at over 45%. There is at least a 15% chance that Biden won’t be the nominee.

We think the odds are higher than that given the decline in Biden’s cognitive abilities and the panic among Democratic politicos, as we discussed yesterday. We view Biden as less formidable than nearly any other plausible replacement – weaker even than Kamala. Kamala is no Golden Knight who would ride to the rescue, but in our opinion is underestimated by the Republicans.

Meanwhile, California Governor Gavin Newsom or Michigan Governor Whitmer — or even Michelle Obama, who is popular with gamblers — could be formidable.