The chart below shows the average U.S. tariff rates on imports over the past year. Our tariff rates were about 5% at the start of the year, but soared to about 30% after “liberation day” last spring.

But the good news is that the average rate is now back down to about 16% thanks to Trump’s new tit-for-tat tariff policy.

Our outlook for 2026 is further easing – no matter how the Supreme Court rules – because President Trump will continue to extract foreign policy concessions, declare victory, and ease back tariffs. We don’t like tariffs, but we often like Trump’s trade deals that lower tariffs on U.S. products.