We’ve always been doubtful that Joe Biden would be the Democratic nominee by the time of the Democratic convention in Chicago this Summer. It seemed highly risky for Democrats to run the same play twice in a row – i.e., hide Biden in the basement from public view and then make the election a referendum on Trump.

But the betting odds of Biden being the Democratic nominee have soared from below 50% several months ago to around 80% now. That seems high to us, and changing horses in the middle of the race is still quite plausible, especially if Biden’s cognitive difficulties become more apparent.

For Republicans, this is a good news-bad news story. The bad news for the GOP is that Biden’s odds of being the Democratic nominee have risen parallel to the improvement in the overall economy and the stock market rally over the past year.

The good news for the GOP is that the Democrats seem intent on tethering themselves to arguably their weakest candidate, other than Kamala Harris. They think the voters will opt for the man who shakes hands with invisible people.

We wonder if Biden will try to run with his sham promise of being a “unifier.”

In the end, we think the election may come down to one question: do voters think they are better off today than four years ago?

Most of the objective economic evidence today says they aren’t. But if voters start to think otherwise, Biden could be tough to beat.