Democratic data guru David Shor, a veteran of the Obama campaigns, has been warning his party that the drift towards Republicans by black and Hispanic voters is a real concern. Now, he says the problem is young people are moving right. Kamala Harris only won about 25% of white men under the age of 20.

Shor also thinks Republicans now perform better in high-turnout elections than low-turnout ones, and that if in 2024 every voter who could have voted did, Trump would have won by a much bigger margin – some 4.8% of the vote versus the actual 2024 margin of 1.4%.

The National Populist Newsletter calculates that the 2024 Electoral College map under a higher-turnout scenario would have shown a landslide. Trump would have carried New Mexico, Minnesota, New Hampshire, New Jersey, Maine, and Virginia.