Not everyone is having a tough time producing accurate numbers these days. Our own data crunchers at Unleash Prosperity almost perfectly nailed 2024 median income – and we did it many months before the official numbers were announced.

Yesterday, the Census Bureau released its Income in the United States: 2024, with its official estimate of median household income for 2024, coming in at $83,780.

Our Unleash Prosperity economic aces could have told them that back in January!

A full eight months before Census released its official data, our model projected 2024 real median household income at $83,420 — a forecast that turned out to be within just 0.3% of the Census number.

With an average standard error of less than 1% since 2012 our model has proven a reliable bellwether of economic conditions from the perspective of the American household.

Paul Krugman and others shrieked that our numbers were made up when UP co-founder Stephen Moore recently presented them in the Oval Office with President Trump, claiming we couldn’t possibly have produced accurate income numbers before the official data release.

This report from Census confirms our methodology works and that, unless you were among the wealthiest American households, you saw insignificant real income growth in the Biden years. The poor actually lost ground under Biden.

Here’s the good news: Our model also tells us that so far in 2025 median income is UP by about $1,100.