It’s the hottest topic now that the Supreme Court has ruled the tariffs imposed under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act of 1977 were unlawful. Opinions are mixed on this issue as well. Our view, based on historical precedent, is that money illegally collected from firms should be rebated back to them expeditiously.

The chart below shows about $175 billion in tariff revenue will need to be sent back.

Here’s a cheat sheet of the tariffs the Court left intact:

• • • 50% on steel and aluminum (25% from the UK)
    • 50% on copper products
    • 25% on automobiles (15% from Japan, South Korea, and the EU)
    • 10% on lumber
    • 25% on furniture
    • China tariffs, ranging from 25% on most goods to 100% on EVs

On Friday, Trump issued a new global 10% tariff under Section 122, based on a finding that the United States has a dangerous balance-of-payments deficit. That tariff (which he later stated he would raise to 15%, but has not yet done so) would expire after 150 days unless Congress extends it, and that will probably happen before courts can address its legality.