It’s time. But a go-slow approach makes the most sense to us.

Inflation has finally subsided for now. Our four favorite measures almost all point to dollar stabilization. Finally. It only took three and a half years and a 20% permanent rise in the price level.

• Commodities. After shooting into the stratosphere in 2021 and 2022, the CRB index is now pretty flat indicating no imminent signs of inflation.

• TIPS Spread. Has inflationary expectations at just a shade above 2% (the Fed target rate) over the foreseeable horizon.

• Ten-Year Treasury. It’s at 3.63% today down from 5% a year ago.

  

• Gold Price. This one worries us. The gold price is getting close to $2,600 an ounce – which is 50% higher than two years ago. This could be due more to international turmoil than inflationary expectations.

The good news for investors is that a rate cut is coming tomorrow. The bad news: it won’t fix the underlying structural economic problems of runaway government spending and debt and the threat of economically debilitating tax increases.