This study estimates that the average 401(k) retirement plan has increased by about $23,200 (16.9 percent) from the first quarter of 2025 through the third quarter, with an inflation-adjusted increase of about $20,700 (15.1 percent).

By contrast, in the four-year period from the first quarter of 2021 through the first quarter of 2025, the average 401(k) retirement plan only increased by about $3,500 (2.6 percent) with an inflation- adjusted decrease of about $24,800 (-15.3 percent).

Pension plan balances have increased from approximately $30.0 trillion in the first quarter of 2025 to about $33.2 trillion in the third quarter of 2025, an increase of about 10.7 percent. Adjusted for inflation, these plans’ balances increased by about 9.0 percent over that same time to the highest level since 2021.

Since the first quarter of 2025, significantly lower rates of price inflation, relatively stabilized bond markets, and robust increases in equity prices have all contributed to a significant increase in inflation-adjusted growth of retirement account balances compared to the prior four years.

The four-year period of 2021 through 2024 was the worst consecutive four years for average bond returns in a century. Retirement accounts with heavier allocations in fixed income assets, common for people nearing retirement, experienced worse than average real losses during those four years.

Aggregate 401(k) balances in the third quarter of 2025 were over $10 trillion for the first time. The large inflation-adjusted gains since the first quarter of 2025 have mostly offset the cumulative losses in the prior four-year period.