| Unleash Prosperity Hotline Issue #175 12/8/2020 |
| 1) Small Business Sentiment: Fear and Loathing Just as we predicted, the NFIB index of small business confidence has fallen in the wake of Biden’s election, reversing a robust three month gain. NFIB: “Owners expecting better business conditions over the next six months declined 19 points to a net 8 percent in spite of great news about Covid-19 vaccines. The election outcome was clearly a disappointment for some small business owners.” That’s putting it mildly. The good news: the jobs market “remains strong,” a not surprising finding given the hyper-acceleration of job creation under Trump since May. Right now 34% of employers report unfilled jobs. The chart below shows this is almost twice the eight-year average under Obama. NFIB concludes that the largest victims of the arbitrary and unfair shutdowns this year have been the men and women who run small firms: “The share of total employment accounted for by firms with 500 or more workers has risen (vs. 2019) while the share accounted for by small employers has declined, no surprise because Covid-19 policies have targeted business activity that disproportionately affect small firms. Amazon has not had to close, but restaurants, gyms, small retailers, etc. have had to close for some periods or operate under heavy traffic restrictions. This has been the major source of increased unemployment. Solving this problem will require getting our small business sector back in operation. The use of more sensible government policies will make this far easier to accomplish.” Good luck with that in the Biden era.  |
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