When confronted with the evidence that the high-tax blue states are losing people, progressives used to respond that the number of movers is too small to matter.

Not anymore they’re not. Last week’s Census Bureau 2023 state population estimates indicated a strong domestic migration trend from Blue States to Red States (classified by the 2020 Presidential election result).

Overall, the 2021-2023 average Red State gain was 1,593,000.  More people than live in Philadelphia or San Antonio (the cities, not the metropolitan areas).

During 2019, the Red State gain was 801,000.  More people than live in the cities of Seattle, Denver, Boston, and Washington, and the largest pre-pandemic gain of the decade.

The Red State gains had been strong in the 2010s, nearly doubling from 426,000 in 2011 (more people than live in Minneapolis and Bakersfield). The figure shows the annual net domestic migration to Red states from Blue states from 2011 to 2023.

Nine of the 10 states declining the most in net domestic migration from last decade were Blue. California had by far the largest loss in net domestic migration in the 2020s compared to the 2010s, dropping 262,000 annually. New York declined 114,000.

Eight of the 10 gains were in Red states. The largest gains were in Florida (107,000) and Texas (74,000).

The Table shows 2020’s net domestic migration data and the trend compared to the 2010s.