1) Celebrate America
We will put politics aside for a (brief) moment and for this Independence Day weekend, we will tip a hat to the animal spirits of the powerful U.S economic engine. Covid slowed us down, but we have come out of this – so far – roaring like a lion.
Despite all of the mistakes made over the past 15 months in terms of runaway multi-trillion-dollar fiscal policy (with debts that will surely come due), unwise draconian lockdowns, foolhardy government programs to pay people not to work, and indefensible school closures – no country has come out of the COVID crisis faster and more powerfully than the US of A.
And who else but America would come up with a vaccine to save millions of lives faster than our scientists and medical experts did?
The first half of 2001 is over and the inflation-adjusted GDP grew at a speedy 6.4% in the first quarter of this year, and the first reading of the GDP number for q2 is 8.3%.
This means that the U.S. economy is now more than 100% recovered from the pre-Covid number of $21 trillion in output. Most of the experts worried this time last year that it wouldn’t be until mid-2022 until that happened.
The stock market is an Apollo rocket ship and multiple trillions of dollars of financial wealth have been added to the record high closes of the S&P 500, the Dow, and the gravity-defying highs in the NASDAQ. Our tech sector is blowing away the rest of the world – including China – which is making even ordinary working class Americans into millionaires. KEEP YOUR HANDS OFF, WASHINGTON!
Yes, we know a lot of this GDP acceleration is due to “fake growth” of government spending, which is a negative not a positive for our long term prosperity. So things are not as good as they seem on paper. Consumer inflation is not showing any signs of abating as the Fed has bet the farm will happen.
But we will just note that Bloomberg (yes, we know, you have to treat their analyses with a grain of salt), recently published an international analysis based on eight recovery factors of what nations came out best.
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