The new inflation rate numbers for May show, as we expected, CPI is now growing at 4.2% year-on-year. That’s more than twice the Fed target number of 2%. Almost all the rise is due to higher energy prices and prices of energy-sensitive sectors like agriculture.

The chart below shows that cumulative inflation under Trump over the first 16 months of his term is 5.5%, less than half of Biden’s 11.7% over the first 16 months of his term. But the White House needs to pull down inflation fast or they could lose both houses in November. One simple idea would be for President Trump to announce a temporary suspension of all tariffs until inflation is back below 2%.