There’s now nearly unanimous agreement that when Biden and regulators blocked the JetBlue and Spirit merger, it may have been the dumbest antitrust case in American history.  Spirit went bankrupt and airline competition was reduced.

Now a new study by the nonpartisan GAO – the federal government’s auditor – has found that airline mergers have not reduced competition and raised fares – but just the opposite.

As the report finds:

After multiple mergers from 2008-2013, 8 domestic airlines became the “Big Four.”

Most studies found that in the short run, these mergers decreased competition on some routes and led to higher fares. But, domestic airfares were generally lower in 2024 than 2 decades ago…

GAO’s analyses of airline competition metrics… suggest that there has been INCREASED competition in the past two decades. (emphasis added) …

Estimated domestic fares that incorporated available airline ancillary fees were lower in 2024 as compared to 2007 – even after they were higher in 2012, around the time of a wave of domestic airline mergers. In addition, market share and other key market structure indicators show increased presence of ultra-low-cost airlines in 2022 compared to 2007. These indicators remained largely unchanged from 2022 through 2024.

The bottom line: airfares after adjusting for inflation are about 15 to 20% LOWER than 12 years ago, and lower than at any time in at least the last 16 years.

We hope that every state Attorney General and every lawyer at the FTC and Justice department reads this story and stops blocking mergers.