One year ago, we exposed on these pages potential shenanigans with the 2020 Census. Based on annual Census estimates from 2011 to 2020 we raised the alert that the new decennial Census count and subsequent reapportionment screwed three red states with big population gains: Florida, Tennessee, and Texas. The population count appeared to us to come in way too high in blue states like Rhode Island and New York.
We were called conspiracy theorists. But yesterday our observations were vindicated by… the US Census Bureau itself!
Here’s how NPR summarized it:
For the 2020 census, all states were not counted equally well for population numbers used to allocate political representation and federal funding over the next decade, according to a U.S. Census Bureau report released Thursday.
A follow-up survey the bureau conducted to measure the national tally’s accuracy found significant net undercount rates in six states: Arkansas (5.04%), Florida (3.48%), Illinois (1.97%), Mississippi (4.11%), Tennessee (4.78%) and Texas (1.92%).
It also uncovered significant net overcount rates in eight states — Delaware (5.45%), Hawaii (6.79%), Massachusetts (2.24%), Minnesota (3.84%), New York (3.44%), Ohio (1.49%), Rhode Island (5.05%) and Utah (2.59%).
The net impact? Red states are getting three fewer House seats than they deserve. This Census miscount could not only impact which party controls the House over the next decade but also gives the blue states three more electoral votes in the presidential elections of 2024 and 2028.