Two things have happened since the start of the year that have changed the Presidential sweepstakes. First, Trump looks nearly invincible as the GOP nominee based on his 30-point win in Iowa and an equally large gap in the national polls against Ron DeSantis and Nikki Haley.
But much more unexpected is that it appears that the Democratic Party faithful and the party’s opinion leaders are rallying around Joe Biden as a result of the improved economy. This is a big and welcome surprise for those of us who thought that Democrats would throw Biden over the side of the bus in the months ahead.
Right now, Biden is a 75% favorite and Trump an 87% favorite to win their party’s nominations.
Although Nikki Haley may pull off an upset in New Hampshire, Trump is trouncing her in her home state of South Carolina. Trump is soundly beating DeSantis in Florida. This is probably going to be over in a hurry.
As for the Democrats, they’re boxed in. We maintain that the only possible worse choice for the Democrats at the top of their ticket would be Kamala.
Do you know ANYONE who actually wants Joe Biden to be president for four more years or who believes he’s mentally up to the task? The Biden vote is simply an anti-Trump vote and, truth be told, there may be enough of those voters for Democrats to win.
Our view is if the economy continues to improve – a truly open question – Biden can win. If things deteriorate, he’s toast.
In 2016 Democrats tethered themselves to Hillary – the only person who could lose to Trump.
In 2024 they may do the same thing.