We are NOT rushing out of the gate predicting recession as so many economists did at the start of 2023 only to get egg in their faces.  The U.S. economy is admirably resilient and technology is making everything more abundant.

However, the manufacturing sector is already negative and has been for several months.

This chart from InterMarket Forecasting Inc. shows that downturns in manufacturing are often early stage signs of overall recession:

Here is a companion of government jobs versus manufacturing jobs. Lately we’ve become a nation of takers, not makers: